World to end in 2019?

[Ragebøx]

Though there is only a slight chance of impact [~1/200,000], scientists and astronomers are keeping a close eye on a large asteroid that may pose a threat to planet Earth. Estimated to be 1.2 miles in length, an impact of this magnitude may pose threat of a global catastrophe. If it hits Earth at all, its estimated date of collision is said to be February 1st, 2019. Until then, scientist will continue to study this asteroid's possible path of destruction.

For more information:
• Astronomers Say Slim Chance of Asteroid Collision with Earth in 2019
• The World Ends 2019 (Possibly)
• Asteroid to Hit Earth in 2019?

[.Hunting:High:and:Low.]

Yeah, I heard about. Lovely, eh? If the world does happen to end in 2019, I'll be... 35. Lovely. I guess I better get cracking if I want a house, and kids, and a husband, and a nice career.

I didn't hear about the "slight chance" though. From the article I read, they're not sure what's going to happen with this puppy, though they will have a better idea as time progresses (another lovely thought, "Oh yes, it is heading straight toward us! And it will hit in approx. 20 minutes! Get your last hurrah in there folks!").

[:: Natalie ::]

I can just picture it. Worse than Y25. People paying big money to go on a spaceship and live somewhere else, in a greenhouse on Mars. Yup. The chances are pretty slim. In my newspaper today, they had an exact time it would hit. 11:something AM. If they can figure that out already, and they still have 17 more years, I'll worry about it later. I'm not too worried.

[Soleluna]

The Maya or Aztecs had already forseen that, and since their scopes have always been correct, astronomers better hurry and see wassup.

[Toxic-Avenger]

Asteroid Impacts - Scientific and Sociopolitical History
In history up to the 1970's, there was little interest in asteroids, including near Earth asteroids. They were considered low class astronomical objects. Indeed, the small comet which destroyed hundreds of square kilometers in remote Siberia in 1908 was an event little known to the general public. A small asteroid which skimmed the upper atmosphere in the 1970's, as detected by a US military satellite, received little publicity.

In the 1970's, things started to change. A small but increasing number of astronomers interested in asteroids began to realize the abundance of asteroids which passed close to Earth, by instituting processes to catalog asteroids accidentally seen on telescopic plates and previously not recorded (in most cases) but seen as a nuisance, as discussed in the PERMANENT section on discovering and cataloging asteroids.

Theoretical computer models revealed that the gravity of the planets caused a sizeable number of asteroids from the Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter to cascade down into lower orbits approaching or crossing Earth's. Further, a significant fraction of comets passing thru the inner solar system would be diverted into orbits near Earth due to gravitational encounters with the inner planets.

As a result of these discoveries, the estimated numbers of near-Earth objects (NEO's) dramatically expanded by about 1000 times! Scientists started to take note.
Ever improving U.S. Defense Dept. sensor technology looking for the satellites of adversaries recorded a surprisingly high frequency of asteroid viewings as well as meteor fireballs hitting Earth's upper atmosphere. A tedious part of this process was discriminating between satellites and distant asteroids.

New telescope technology (CCD's) emerging around 1990 increased the discovery rate of all asteroids and confirmed the above theory on the abundance of asteroids (based on solid statistical sampling rates). In fact, it is now estimated that there are about 300,000 near-Earth asteroids over 100 meters in diameter, and about 2000 over 1 kilometer in diameter.

If an asteroid of size 200 meters hit the ocean (which covers 70% of the Earth), the tsunami (i.e., giant wave) it would create would inflict catastrophic destruction of coastal cities and substantial worldwide human casualties along coastlines.

If an asteroid of size 1 kilometer hit Earth, it would cause a dust cloud which would block out sunlight for at least a year and lead to a deep worldwide winter, exhausting food supplies. The latter is what caused the dinosaur extinction, as well as other major extinctions of smaller creatures in geologic time scales. The 200 meter asteroid hits, which are far more common than the 1 km+ hits, wouldn't show up much in geologic histories on a global scale. There have been many local tsunamis and brief climate changes in recorded history without any understanding of why.

On March 23, 1989, an asteroid with a kinetic energy of over 1000 one-megaton hydrogen bombs (i.e., about 5,000 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima) was recorded to have passed very close to Earth, using new technology equipment recently emplaced. Named 1989FC, this asteroid was detected only well after its point of closest approach, and we found out it had passed so close only after calculating backwards its orbital path after realizing its nearness. This was a key event that brought near Earth asteroids into the political arena.

Later, the new Spacewatch Camera in Arizona, using the latest technology in electronic sensors and computerized automated detection, discovered four asteroids that came closer to the Earth than the Moon (actually within half the distance of the Moon) in 1991-94!

The 1989FC near miss prompted a division of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), the Space Systems Technical Committee (SSTC), to publish a position paper in April, 1990, entitled "Dealing with the Threat of an Asteroid Striking the Earth"., written by the SSTC chairman, E. Tagliaferri. This paper was submitted to the US Congress as part of the AIAA's annual testimony.

The U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Science, Space and Technology was moved by this submission and stated, in the NASA Multiyear Authorization Act of 1990,
"The Committee believes that it is imperative that the detection rate of Earth-orbit-crossing asteroids must be increased substantially, and that the means to destroy or alter the orbits of asteroids when they do threaten collisions should be defined and agreed upon internationally.

[Toxic-Avenger]

But wait, there's more comforting thoughts here.

The chances of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid are extremelly small, but because the consequences of such a collision are extremely large, the Committee believes it is only prudent to assess the nature of the threat and prepare to deal with it."


YOUR COLLISION PARAMETERS
Projectile Diameter: 1.93 kilometers / 1.2 miles.
Velocity: 28 kilometers / 17 miles per second
Target: Earth
Rocky Asteroid
RESULT: A 32 km impact crater Clearwater Lake in Quebec, Canada.
Energy Released = 839147 MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Shoemaker Levy 9 collision with Jupiter: 5 million MT)
QUAKE!! Magnitude 9.6 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)
Crater Diameter: 29.9 km / 18 miles
Crater Depth: 0.8 km / 2,624 feet
A collision this large occurs roughly once every 2.1 million years.






All paintings by Donald E. Davis. www.donaldedavis.com

[dizzyupthegirl]

wow

[Shrubby]

Well, don't I feel nice and cozy now
That's a tad depressing. I'll be 30 years
old, so I should be married and have a
kitten and some young 'uns by then...
It's a small chance, right? Because I
haven't heard about ANY of this!

[Toxic-Avenger]

It is a small chance, but some of these asteroids pass by and we don't notice them until a few days later. Some pass by inside the orbit of Earth's moon. Others sweep by a 160,000 miles from Earth. But one even a mile wide hitting the Eath is very small. You're more likly to win a million in the lottery.

[tay]

I'm not too worried. At least, not now. Maybe if they change their minds about when it'll hit us, in 17 years, I will be. There are so many asteroids that come by the earth. Everyone gets so worried about them.

And about the Mayan thing. They predicted the world would end in December. The prediction for the asteroid hitting is February. And didn't the Mayans also say it was 2012? So... they're kinda off there, if this asteroid is to be the thing that ends the world.

[konark]

i think that the human civilisation will die out anyway eventually.........so i'd rather see the destruction of the civilisation from a natural cause than from our own idiocy and arrogance.
*~pobo-is-single

[Jared]

Toxic said:

Asteroid Impacts - Scientific and Sociopolitical History
In history up to the 1970's, there was little interest in asteroids, including near Earth asteroids. They were considered low class astronomical objects. Indeed, the small comet which destroyed hundreds of square kilometers in remote Siberia in 1908 was an event little known to the general public.

actually that tunguska comet was never proven to be a comet and had a explosion pattern not of that an upper atmosphere comet would cause but of an atomic explosion and the plants n trees have symptoms of radiation exposure....also theres a scientist that was testing a power transmitter on that exact day and supposedly over powered it and created a particale beam and hit that area and particale beams are theorised to be that powerful and have that radiation effect on living things also 4 3days after this happened the sky all over the world looked like it was day time and thats a theorised effect of high powered electricity hitting the atmosphere and charging it......
ligtning is a low powered small natural particale beam and if you look at when lightning hits a tree it makes it grow funny and the sky glows when u see it strike anyways id not use something not proven as an example

[funkygirlk16]

Oh puh-leeze. The world will end, when God decides it's time to end. I'm not worried about it in the least bit.

~jenny